By Ochereome Nnanna |
IN exactly four days, the days of Dr. Goodluck Jonathan as the President, Commander-in-Chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria will be over. You must, like me, have wondered what this young man will be doing with his life at 58.
I call him “young man” in view of the age bracket of those who will be his fellow former presidents. Some of them (like Shehu Shagari, Yakubu Gowon and Olusegun Obasanjo) are old enough to be his fathers. Should he remain active in politics, for instance?
IN exactly four days, the days of Dr. Goodluck Jonathan as the President, Commander-in-Chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria will be over. You must, like me, have wondered what this young man will be doing with his life at 58.
I call him “young man” in view of the age bracket of those who will be his fellow former presidents. Some of them (like Shehu Shagari, Yakubu Gowon and Olusegun Obasanjo) are old enough to be his fathers. Should he remain active in politics, for instance?
Looking at his predecessors, their involvement can be classified as “active”, “passive” and “neutral”. Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari (who is making a come-back to power) are active political volcanoes. They identify with political parties and openly strive to influence power play. Shagari and Ibrahim Babangida are passive. They have strong political interests and opinions but stay away from direct involvement. Gowon and Abdulsalami Abubakar appear totally neutral. You hardly hear them take interest in partisan activities, and when they offer their views or advice, it is usually mediatory and fatherly. Please, don’t remind me that Ernest Shonekan is one of them. I am usually reluctant to include him in this list because he is a Judas who volunteered himself to be used to scuttle the mandate Nigerians freely gave to his kinsman, Chief Moshood Abiola, and was promptly ignominiously booted out barely after 81 days.
I have been hearing some rustlings here and there, that GEJ will attempt to remain as the leader of the defeated People’s Democratic Party (PDP). He, himself, has said a couple of times that he would devote his energies to see that the party bounces back. I have also even heard that he might run for president again in 2019. I hope he still has advisers. Not “Special Advisers” – mercenaries paid with government funds who, after collecting the money, sabotaged him to ensure he was not re-elected. I am talking about those who truly love him and would want him to retain some of his residual glory and maintain the new status of esteem in the world occasioned by his civilised handling of his electoral loss to Buhari.
If I were in a position to whisper into the ears of our departing president, I would not ask him to maintain absolute neutrality in politics. Once a person has tasted the soup of partisan politics; once a person has occupied a powerful office through the vehicle of partisan politics, it is nearly impossible to come out and become neutral. It is like a woman who spent many years as a professional prostitute and got married. Her eyes will still rove, even if involuntarily. But, even a repented prostitute, like a retired president, can curb his or her impulses. That is what confers respectability.
Look at Shagari, my most favourite ex-president. He is supportive of the PDP. His children have occupied various offices on the party’s platform. But Shagari will never tarnish his halo with the kind of greedy attitude to politics and power which Obasanjo exhibits even after three terms as head of state and the longest serving. He is “the goat seller who refuses to release the rope”. He is already angling to put the rope around the neck of Buhari, and Arewa politicians are telling him to gerrout.
Jonathan must not follow the footsteps of his political mentor, Obasanjo. If he tries it, he will be disgraced. Obasanjo has been disgraced many times over. He was shot in the buttocks during the civil war. He has been arraigned for coup plotting, jailed and his rank taken from him. His attempt to give himself a third term was ruthlessly thwarted. His ambition to install himself as the life leader of the PDP was suavely nixed, and he was subsequently forced out as the Chairman, Board of Trustees of the Party.
Far worse has happened to him on his home front, where his wives and children have dragged his name in the mud. His own Transparency International (TI) has dubbed his government the most corrupt of all. But Obasanjo is still the longest serving ruler of Nigeria, and it does not appear possible that anyone will break that record. Jonathan is definitely not Obasanjo. Not by any long shot. Jonathan has sold the goat. He must let go of the rope, or he will meet his political waterloo.
A general who leads his army to a crushing defeat must relinquish his command. When General Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu lost the civil war he had to leave the country, not just for his own safety. The imperative of letting go holds true for GEJ just as it does for the National Chairman of the PDP, Alhaji Adamu Muazu, a suspected mole of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Jonathan can assist in a passive way, in the effort to revitalise the PDP, but he cannot lead the effort. What will he bring now that he did not have when he occupied a position touted as the most powerful in the world?
When I say GEJ is no Obasanjo, it shows in many ways. For instance, Obasanjo was farsighted in building up his power based within the PDP. He started early and by the time electioneering came, he had an easy ride. Jonathan in his five years as president, made very little attempt to build his power base in his party. He was unable to produce any governor, National Assembly member or loyalists in the party. It was the governors and National Assembly members that Obasanjo implanted that he used to destroy PDP and help stop GEJ’s re-election. OBJ deployed his technocrats to fight him in the media and civil society. Where are GEJ’s people? Even the Ijaw militants he “empowered” (including pardoned felon Diepreye Alamieyeseigha) are crawling over to the winners.
Jonathan can no longer count on the South East and South-South if he chooses to be foolhardy and plunge into a return bid in 2019. The support they packaged for him was meant to last from 2011 to 2019, but due to his poor political capacity, he lost grip after only four years. It has expired for GEJ. New people must come in and recharge the South East/South-South platform into a formidable political force, and GEJ can only be a glorified figurehead in it.
Besides (and most importantly) the presidential impetus has swung away from the South-South. It has gone northwards. In 2019, any political party that wants to win election must field a presidential candidate from the North. If PDP wants to bounce back, it must look northwards. In fact, the only chance of PDP ever bouncing back is to reclaim as many of its adherents from the North as possible, as the Buhari hoopla begins to wear off.
When the impetus swings to any region it does not pay to try and fight against it. In 1999 it was in the South West, and most registered political party looked for their candidates from there. In 2011, an attempt by Buhari to fight against South-South’s GEJ resulted in his defeat by 10 million votes. In 2019, any party going against the North will be on its own. And after that, nobody can stop the swing of impetus to the South East.
Jonathan should properly brand himself along his democracy credentials and carry out assignments to promote peace in Nigeria, Africa and the world at large. But GEJ for president in 2019? Forget it! That party is over. Over, you hear?
